The bet
Harbor sells 180 bags on weekends. A subscription keeps the same roast and adds a second bag, without a second roastery. The beta is capped at 200 existing customers; the public offer starts only if 60% reorder in the first 90 days.
Where the next 1,200 come from
Referral is the largest source because the bag club already has a relationship with every customer. Paid social is a test, not the plan.
New subscribers by channel, first ten months
Fictional plan data. Ten channels in one CSS chart; vertical rows, so labels never collide at any width.
Traction
The bag club is the seed. The line is the subscription ramp we need to hit 1,200 by September.
Subscribers, January to September
Fictional plan data. The SVG carries the shape only; every label is HTML in CSS pixels, so 11–12px on a phone and on a desktop alike. Every second month label hides under 700px.
Timeline
- Feb 2027200 beta customers
Existing bag club first.
- Apr 2027Packaging and label
Twenty-customer test.
- May 2027Public launch
Second bag added.
- Jul 2027600 subscribers
Referral offer live.
- Sep 20271,200 subscribers
Second roaster covered.
Decisions
| Decision | Options | Call | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Subscription model | Weekend bag / four-week subscription | Four-week | Keeps the same roast and adds a second bag without a second roastery. |
| Price | $32 / $38 / $42 per four weeks | $38 | Covers the second roaster at 1,200 subscribers. |
| Beta size | 100 / 200 / 400 customers | 200 | Enough signal on churn without buying capacity first. |
| Delivery | Flat $4 / free over $60 | Flat $4 | Simple to explain; local pickup stays free. |
Risks
| Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Mitigation | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green coffee price rises 15% | Medium | High | Six-month contract and a 10% buffer. | Harbor |
| Churn above 5% | Medium | High | 90-day check. Pause ads and call the first 50 customers. | Harbor |
| Roaster capacity | Low | High | Cap beta at 200. Second roaster only after 1,000 subscribers. | Harbor |
| Delivery cost per bag | Medium | Medium | Flat $4 delivery and local pickup. | Harbor |
Roast schedule
The roaster runs two batches a week. The schedule lives in one small file so the shop and the roastery read the same dates.
{
"tuesday": "filter",
"friday": "espresso",
"batchKg": 12,
"subscriptionFirst": true
}Static spans mark the tokens. The Copy button is added by the plan viewer, not by this file.
Next steps
- Recruit 200 beta customers from the bag club.
- Lock a six-month green coffee contract.
- Test the bag and label with 20 customers.
- Set the referral offer to one free bag.
- Review churn at 90 days before buying capacity.